January 2nd Bowl Forecasts

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on all the upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

Yesterday I had a 5-0 day in my forecasts including three outright upsets! I picked Florida to win big over Cincinnati as they had a 659-246 yard edge and I called for Auburn to win by 3 in the Outback Bowl! I hope to have another great day with today’s forecasts on the five games.

International Bowl

Northern Illinois vs USF

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Rogers Centre (Dome).

Northern Illinois is more excited to be here.  Naturally USF has the talent edge and in this bowl game the Big East has won all three including the last two by 22 and 18 points. South Florida does have the most electrifying player on the field in QB BJ Daniels.  The Bulls also have 2 outstanding defensive ends to rush the passer.  If Northern Illinois is going to have a chance they need RB Chad Spann (938 rush yards, 5.94 ypc, 19 TDs) to have a big game.  Husky QB Chandler Harnish could have a breakout game if given time. On paper USF should win by 10-17 points but with the Huskies more excited I’ll call for the Bulls to escape by 3.

PHIL’S FORECAST: USF 24 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 21

Papa Johns Bowl

Connecticut vs South Carolina

Gametime Projected Weather: 37° Sunny Wind: NNW 10 mph

Connecticut has been a great story this season after losing cornerback Jasper Howard and still went 7-5 and had it not been for a couple of tough losses the Huskies could have had a great season.  UConn does have a large special teams edge (#31-108) and 3 times this season the running back combo of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon have each topped 100 yards rushing.  South Carolina has a large edge on defense (#14-78) and they are more excited than normal with a chance of using this game as a springboard to next year.  With that large edge in defense I’ll call for the Gamecoccks to win this by 14.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 31 CONNECTICUT 17

Cotton Bowl

Mississippi vs Oklahoma St

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Cowboys Stadium (Dome).

Oklahoma St suspended cornerback Perrish Cox who is not only the Cowboys top corner but also one of the top corners in the country. Cox is also their main KR (20.9) and PR (10.4) as his loss will be huge.  The Cowboys do get RB Kendall Hunter back and Ole Miss has struggled against spread offenses.  These two were both unusually ranked in the top 10 this preseason and neither lived up to expectations. This has become sort of the Redemption Bowl for both teams.  Expect Ole Miss RB/WR Dexter McCluster to have a big game and QB Jevan Snead to stay away from costly mistakes as I’ll call for the Rebels by 7.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI 31 OKLAHOMA ST 24

Liberty Bowl

Arkansas vs East Carolina

Gametime Projected Weather: 29° Partly Cloudy then Clear Wind: NNE 5 mph

East Carolina coach Skip Holtz thinks this will be lower scoring than expected as his defense matches up well with high-powered offenses including winning the last 2 CUSA title games vs Houston.  Arkansas has suspended three players, which is reminiscent of Skip’s father Lou who suspended three of his top players in the 1978 Orange Bowl against Oklahoma and the Hogs responded with a big win.  Both teams are fired up to be here but I like the way Skip Holtz gets his team ready for big games as the Pirates keep it closer than expected.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 31 EAST CAROLINA 27

Alamo Bowl

Michigan St vs Texas Tech

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Alamodome.

A bizarre game.  Michigan State has 14 players suspended including some key WRs and DBs and of course Texas Tech will be with out head coach Leach who also serves as the OC and play caller.  Neither team will be near their regular season capabilities but the crowd will favor Texas Tech as they have sold a majority of the tickets for this game. Would you rather have 14 players suspended or be without your head coach? We will find out an answer but I originally sided with Texas Tech and interim coach McNeill should have them pretty fired up.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 37 MICHIGAN ST 24

Conference Bowl Standings

The MWC is a perfect 4-0 and has a chance to finish the postseason undefeated if TCU can beat Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl on Monday. The Sun Belt also has a chance to finish undefeated if Troy beats MAC champ Central Michigan in the GMAC on January 6th. The Big 12 and Big 10 have had decent postseasons as the Big 10 picked up a couple of big wins yesterday with Penn St beating LSU on a muddy field in the Capital One Bowl and Ohio St took care of Oregon in the Rose Bowl. It was the first win for the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl since 1999 (0-6)! Northwestern almost made it a perfect day for the conference but a fake field goal try failed in OT as Auburn beat the Wildcats 38-35 in an entertaining Outback Bowl. The SEC despite the LSU loss had a good day led by Florida’s demolition of Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl as the Gators had a 659-246 yard edge! Finally the Big East which came into yesterday 2-0 lost both games including West Virginia’s loss to Florida St in the Gator Bowl which gave Bobby Bowden a win in his final game.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Make sure to check the daily blog every day as we will be posting the standings here after every bowl game is played.

There will be two Top 50 leaderboards. The first one will be points won and the second is best win percentage of their points. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on so that is why I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage.

I have also added two columns to the leaderboards in today’s blog and will include them from here on out. The first column shows how many points are left on the table. There were 595 possible points and with 9 games left some have wagered a lot more points than others so far. The 2nd column figures the maximum possible points one can finish with if all their picks win. As you can see some people farther down the leaderboard have an opportunity to finish with more points since they have risked less points so far.

After 25 bowl games William Meleski continues to lead the contest for the tenth day in a row with 315 points won and a 70% win %. However it will be interesting to see if he can hold onto to his lead in the next couple of days with only 67 points left. Ben Brin is in 2nd again with 355 points and Marc Ostrom moves up to 3rd with 352 points. Don Seebold is first in win % with 83% and he still has 175 points left.

I had a perfect 5-0 day yesterday and now have 284 points! There are still 9 bowl games remaining including five today! Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to the near 1200 people that have entered. If you have any questions concerning your points or do not see your name in the Top 50 and think it should be please email Brandon@philsteele.com.

Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

The Top 50 in Win %